As I write this Avatar 2 is a week from being released.
A video I watched the other night claims this movie is going to FLOP hard.
According to the guy behind the video, people have forgotten all about Avatar. There’s no buzz surrounding the movie. It’s too long. James Cameron is old, and has no idea what he’s doing. The last movie was too long ago, and no one cares anymore – especially younger people, who didn’t watch the original film.
(BTW, you’re probably wondering what the hell this has to do with marketing or copywriting. Well, keep reading, there are some subtle lessons here regarding psychology, business, and yes, marketing.)
You see, I’m fairly certain Avatar 2 is going to make at least a billion dollars.
IMHO there are several reasons.
1. Baby Boomers
Now, it’s true that younger people haven’t grown up with Avatar, and when I say young, I’m talking about really young people i.e. those who weren’t born when the last movie came out. These kids have no connection to the previous film, and no real reason to watch it. But what you have to understand is that this really doesn’t matter. It’s not important because – in today’s society – these aren’t the people with money. No, what you have to realize is that it’s older people (baby boomers) who have cash to spend, plus the time to go out and watch movies. Not only that, these are the people who actually saw the previous movie – and thus have a connection to it.
2. Foreign Markets
I’m fairly certain Avatar is going to do gangbusters in places like China and India. These markets are known for enjoying big-budget pop-corn movies. They’re the reason why franchises like The Avengers, Transformers, and Fast the Furious make so much money – and now you can add Avatar to the list.
Avatar will forever be associated with the 3D movie craze. And although that trend has basically died, there’s a certain level of nostalgia involved. If you saw the original, you can probably remember the excitement of watching a movie in 3D for the first time. This experience made a big impact on people, and gives them yet another reason to watch the sequel.
To put it bluntly, the world sucks right now. What this means is that people crave escapism, and this movie is perfect for that. Audiences want an escape from reality. They want to be transported to the bright blue world of Pandora, go on an amazing adventure, and forget about their troubles for a while.
Apparently the new Avatar clocks in at around 3 hours. This is another reason why people think the movie will fail – it’s just too long. Unfortunately, these people are completely wrong. What it all comes down to is consumption. Basically, length = value for money. Imagine going to Burger King and getting a Whopper that is twice the size for the same amount of money (A good example of this is Stranger Things season 4, which was wildly popular with fans – despite its 13 hour run length.)
This movie is releasing during Christmas, and right now there’s really nothing to watch – especially when it comes to big “tent pole” movies. Think about it, what else can you compare to Avatar? If you’re going to the movies, well, you’ll probably end up watching this film. There’s basically no other competition, which counts massively in its favor.
The final factor is James Cameron.
Quite simply, this guy is a genius and knows exactly what he’s doing.
(Especially when it comes to blockbuster movies.)
Anyway, let’s see how the film does…
P.S. How much will Avatar actually make? Who knows, but I’m fairly certain it’s going to break the billion dollar mark. In fact, I have a feeling it could even do 2 billion dollars.